In a hurry? Here’s what’s happening with Hurricane Milton in less than a minute.
Hurricane Milton strengthened over the Gulf of Mexico as it takes aim at Florida.
Milton is a Category 5 hurricane with 180-mph winds, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Here’s how fast Milton has been strengthening all day Monday:
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Milton
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NHC forecasters at 11 a.m. predicted Milton’s sustained winds would hit 165 mph within the next 12 hours. Less than 3 hours later, winds hit 175 mph and 180 mph by 5 p.m. Forecasts have been changing all day Monday as Milton undergoes rapid intensification. A Category 5 hurricane has sustained winds of at least 157 mph.
Milton could strengthen even more tonight with light shear and very warm waters providing a conducive environment, according to the NHC’s 5 p.m. forecast.
Several areas in Florida are currently under hurricane, storm surge or tropical storm watches. Expect more to be issued. Devastating impacts are forecast for Florida, from life-threatening storm surge, flooding rain and damaging winds.
A state of emergency has been declared in Florida for 51 out of 67 counties ahead of Milton, which is taking aim at the western coast of the state. Milton is expected to make landfall Wednesday. Several counties have announced schools will be closed.
“Despite uncertainty about exactly how Milton plays out, there is high confidence that destructive surge is coming to Southwest Florida on Wednesday, with the potential for the worst surge in more than 100 years in the Tampa Bay area,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
➤ Live updates: Get the latest news around Florida as Hurricane Milton approaches
➤ Hurricane Milton may bring worst surge in a century to Tampa, Southwest Florida
Impacts expected include a “devastating storm surge to major flooding from rain, damaging wind gusts, pounding surf and tornadoes,” according to AccuWeather.
Approximately 90% of all deaths in hurricanes worldwide are caused by drowning in either the storm surges or flooding caused by intense rainfall, according to the Florida Climate Center.
“Milton has the potential to become one of Florida’s most damaging and costly hurricanes, bringing a variety of life-threatening dangers,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
“This includes an extreme storm surge of 10-15 feet along and near the coast, including in the Tampa Bay area, destructive winds and major flooding to one of the most densely populated areas of Florida, the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando.
“Milton may be a historic, once-in-a-lifetime storm for Floridians,” said Porter.
The National Hurricane Center said models are in disagreement on where Milton will make landfall. The official NHC track forecast at 11 a.m. shifted landfall farther north on Florida’s West Coast. but there are some models showing a more southerly track.
AccuWeather is predicting landfall as a Category 3 storm around Longboat Key, north of Sarasota, around 8 p.m. Wednesday, said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva in a telephone interview early Monday afternoon.
“It’ll stay a Category 5 storm until Tuesday morning and then undergoes an eye wall replacement, which is normal with powerful hurricanes, that will temporarily reduce winds but will increase the size. It’ll probably intensify again, but that’s hard to predict,” DaSilva said.
➤ What is storm surge and why is it so dangerous?
Even if Milton makes landfall as a Category 3 storm, don’t expect the storm surge impact to lessen, DaSilva said.
“As a Category 5 now, it’s generating a lot of energy. It’ll still have the surge power of a Category 4 storm, even if it makes landfall as a Category 3 storm. We saw this with Katrina, and it’s one thing we’re concerned about.”
At this time, the worst storm surge is expected in the Bradenton and Sarasota, area, where it could reach a historic 15-20 feet, according to AccuWeather.
A storm surge of 10 to 15 feet is expected between Tampa and Fort Myers. If landfall is just north of Sarasota, storm surge could be 15 to 20 feet, DaSilva said.
“A landfall north of Tampa will push water into Tampa Bay in a worst-case scenario.”
If landfall is south of Tampa, storm surge in Tampa Bay could be dangerous but not as extreme, AccuWeather said.
Adding to the area’s problems: devastation from the storm surge from Hurricane Helene.
“When this storm (Milton) comes, there will be less natural protection,” DaSilva said.
Florida’s East Coast also could see storm surge from Milton. “Three to 6 feet is likely over a much larger stretch of the west coast from around Naples north to Cedar Key and a portion of the Atlantic coast from near Cape Canaveral to Saint Augustine,” AccuWeather said.
At 8 p.m. EDT, the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 90.4 West.
Milton is moving toward the east near 10 mph.
This general motion is expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east- northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 180 mph with higher gusts.
➤ WeatherTiger: Milton may bring worst surge in a century to Tampa, Southwest Florida
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Milton
Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.
Here are the latest watches and warnings issued for areas threatened by Hurricane Milton:
Hurricane warning:
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch:
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
What is storm surge?Graphics explain the deadly weather event
Storm surge warning:
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Storm surge watch:
Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm warning:
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch:
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Hurricane Milton
“Milton has the potential to become one of Florida’s most damaging and costly hurricanes, bringing a variety of life-threatening dangers,” warned Porter. “This includes an extreme storm surge of 10-15 feet along and near the coast, including in the Tampa Bay area, destructive winds and major flooding to one of the most densely populated areas of Florida, the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando.”
“The storm is expected to bring several inches of rainfall to the Sunshine State, with a large area of 8-12 inches forecast through central and northeastern Florida, including the Tampa-St. Petersburg area, Orlando and Jacksonville. The AccuWeather Local StormMax for rainfall is an incredible 30 inches.
“Strong, damaging winds well in excess of 100 mph, up to the AccuWeather Local StormMax of 165 mph.”
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin soon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day.
SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
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(This story was updated to add new information and to add a video.)
