Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week.
For the first time in its history, the arabica futures market has reached over US $4/lb. This unprecedented high – largely due to supply shortages in Brazil, dwindling global stockpiles, and US President Trump’s tariff threats to Colombia – has sent shockwaves through the coffee industry. The last record high was US $3.39/lb in 1977, following a severe frost in Brazil, the world’s biggest producer.
The 1977 record, adjusted for inflation in 2025, is around US $17.55/lb. Although the current market price is far off this figure, the rebound over the last six years has been remarkable. In 2019, arabica futures were below US $1/lb. Throughout 2024 alone, they increased by more than 70%.
As the term suggests, market volatility is unpredictable and unstable. While it’s likely that futures will keep climbing, they could fall at any point – and by how much is anyone’s guess. Hitting the US $4 mark, however, could cause traders and roasters to panic buy, driving prices up even further.
Many in the industry are reiterating that farmers, who are often at the mercy of low market prices, are benefitting. But the higher costs of fertilisers – a result of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict – and other farming inputs means many may only break even.
Whichever way the market swings, this represents a turning point for the coffee industry. Roasters and traders are now faced with increasingly tough decisions, and the consequences will trickle down to consumers.
Want to keep up with current affairs in the coffee industry? Check out last week’s coffee news stories and make sure to read the latest Coffee Intelligence News & Opinion piece about how Trump’s trade wars are driving up coffee prices.
Passionate about music and coffee, not necessarily in that order. He has been writing about both, and many other things, since 2005.
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