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When the COVID-19 public health emergency ended on May 11, California and the Bay Area had notched a dramatic reduction in their worst COVID outcomes: From the beginning of 2023 to early May, deaths decreased by 77%, while hospitalizations plummeted by 70%.
As of May 1, the 7-day average rate of lab tests that were COVID-positive had dropped to just under 5%, the threshold researchers generally consider for having coronavirus transmission under control. By contrast, the one-week positivity rate averaged almost 13% at the end of December, and during the winter surge a year earlier, it was 22%. (The testing data does not account for the vast number of home tests that do not get reported to officials.)
The dominance of the XBB.1.5 omicron subvariant and emergence of other subvariants, such as XBB.1.16, XBB.1.9.1, and XBB.2.3, did not deter the progress. On May 5, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 pandemic was no longer a global emergency, just as the United States recorded its lowest number of deaths since the virus first emerged in early 2020. CDC data covering 2022 showed the virus had dropped from being the nation’s third leading cause of death to the fourth spot.
The virus has claimed the lives of over 100,700 Californians and more than 1.13 million people across the nation. Globally, at least 7 million individuals are reported to have lost their lives to COVID, although the WHO estimates that the actual figure may be closer to 20 million. Experts assert that the rise of vaccination, treatment, and public health tools now combines to prevent the virus from being as deadly as it was early in the outbreak, even if COVID-19 has not been eradicated.
About the data
Update: Cases and deaths data come from files released by the California Department of Public Health, collected from 61 county and city health departments statewide.
Before September 2021, The Chronicle and the Los Angeles Times led a data collection partnership of California media organizations, including the San Diego Union-Tribune, KQED, KPCC, CapRadio, Calmatters and Big Local News at Stanford University. Starting Sept. 3, 2021, the California Data Coalition switched its source for county virus data to counts released the California Department of Public Health. A one-time change in charts and totals occurred on the date of that change.
Data collection at the outset of the pandemic was completed manually, four times each day. This count was able to collect figures far ahead of any state-led tally. Once the state’s data improved, the coalition moved to end its own collection. The source update on Sept. 3 resulted in a one-time change to charts and figures on this page. Questions can be sent to our team here.
Findings signal earlier start to U.S. outbreak: An autopsy report showing that the first death linked to COVID-19 happened Feb. 6 in Santa Clara County and not Feb. 26 in Washington supports research indicating that the outbreak began in the United States much earlier than we knew and before health officials began tracking data.
There were 300 cases reported in the Bay Area when shelter-in-place orders were put in place on March 16. But studies and disease models suggest that more than 10,000 people in the Bay Area likely were infected by then. That research, along with the earlier death identified in Santa Clara County, indicates how far behind the U.S. was in recognizing the outbreak of the virus.
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Erin Allday • eallday@sfchronicle.com • @erinallday
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